Sports enthusiasts in Tanzania are regularly winning bucket-loads of money by betting on football with Parimatch. One of the biggest reasons for their successful wagers lies in the use of a clever football betting strategy.
If you want to increase your odds of placing a winning bet, you’ll need to learn the simple techniques diligently practiced by bettors across Africa.
Whether you’re new to online sports betting or you’re a seasoned pro, in this article you’ll learn the best football betting methods, proven to work in 2020.
Why are Football Betting Strategies Important?
Imagine you’re on a first date with someone you have a crush on. You would probably follow some basic guidelines to improve your chances of a second date. Betting on soccer is no different, you’ve got a hot date with the bookmaker and it’s important to have a strategy for long-term success.
A football betting strategy is a set of predetermined rules and guidelines which, when followed, help lead you to your objective. By following these rules with conviction, you will reduce the potential risks of emotionally-driven bets. Instead, you’ll be basing your bets on logical strategies.
Following a strategic method will also help you to navigate the online sportsbook much quicker, leading to a better experience. Right off the bat you’ll be able to eliminate bets which don’t conform to your risk profile.
Over time, you can make minor tweaks and refine your strategy to further improve your chances of placing a successful bet.
At the end of the day there is no silver bullet for winning every bet but having a well-thought-out plan only serves to help you become profitable in the long run.
Top Football Betting Strategies for Making Killer Bets
There are many different strategies that work, but the real secret is to find a betting strategy that suits you. Some strategies are focused on the highest possible returns, whereas others are focused on minimizing risk.
Take a look at the proven football systems of 2020 and see if you can target a method that will work best for you.
1. Value Betting
This strategy focuses on placing high-value bets. In other words, bets where the chances of something happening are greater than the odds suggest.
Remember that soccer odds represent the ratio between risk and reward. The ideal value bet, by any bettors standards, is one where there is minimal risk with the potential for a high payout.
Exact true odds are impossible to calculate, considering that it is impossible to replicate the same sporting event enough times (thousands) for a 100% accurate predictive algorithm. What this means is that while the odds presented on the sportsbook may be close to the true odds, they can’t be exact — this is how good odds are born.
The easiest way to find value bets is by calculating the implied probability of the odds on the sportsbook and then comparing it against the probability you’ve come up with based on your own personal knowledge. The bigger the discrepancy between the implied probability from the bookmaker, and your own personal prediction, the greater the value in the bet.
An example of value betting in practice would be someone only betting on odds that have a discrepancy of 20% or more, from the bookmakers implied probability, to their own probability prediction.
If you’re unfamiliar with how to calculate the implied probability, check out this guide on how to read soccer odds on Parimatch.
2. Value-Based Staking
With a value football betting strategy, the bettor is primarily focused on which odds to wager on, whereas in a value-based staking strategy, the bettor is primarily concerned with how much to wager.
With this method, the bettor will stake an amount on odds proportional to their perceived value. For example, if you saw some outrageous moneyline odds that don’t line up at all with your predictions, then you would stake a large amount as this is perceived to be a very high value bet.
Likewise, if you saw odds that conform very closely to your own predictions, you would wager a much smaller amount in an effort to mitigate your risk.
In simple terms, with a value based staking strategy, you are wagering an amount based on the value of the odds. To make a profitable bet, the higher the value of the odds, the more you wager, and vice versa.
3. Situational Football Betting Strategy
Parimatch has a super user-friendly soccer betting application that allows you to place bets across a wide variety of markets in seconds. That’s why Parimatch is ideal for a situational betting strategy, as you’ll need a sportsbook with many different bet types.
With situational betting football systems, you are looking for a bet that’s super favourable to the exact conditions or situation surrounding the football match. The more bet types offered, the more situations you can consider.
For example, if on match day the weather calls for gusty winds (this is the situation), think about how that may affect the players’ performance on the pitch. Typically high winds mean a lower scoring affair. Use this knowledge to your advantage by selecting a football bet type that works well with low-scoring events.
In this case, you might consider placing a total bet on the “under” to take the unfavourable conditions into account.
There are a number of other situations to consider, such as the injury report, significance of match, recent form, etc. Focusing on the context of a match is one of the best football systems used to help you determine which bet type will give you the best opportunity to win.
4. Betting on the Home Underdog
Betting on the underdog always offers a higher potential payout than the favourite. After all, they aren’t expected to win, so the odds will be higher. Higher odds mean a high payout, but they also mean a higher risk.
But perhaps that risk is actually an illusion if the underdog is the home team. Home team fans create such a supportive atmosphere that this can actually sway the game.
With this soccer betting strategy, bettors are relying on the home supporters to give their heroes a performance boost on the pitch. The theory is that with all the passionate support from the fans, the home team will be more successful, potentially skewing the odds in the underdogs’ favour.
Betting on the home underdog to win is a very simple yet highly effective method for betting on football odds. It typically works best when the odds are close enough that a slight nudge from the supporters may put the home underdog over the top.
However, it’s not wise to bet on the home underdog to win when the odds are really far apart.
5. Bounce Back Football Betting Strategy
This extremely simple football betting strategy is based on the idea that a team wants to redeem themselves. If a team has been on a losing streak, they’re often fired up to set the record straight again. This pushes them to work harder, play better, and drive for a win.
For example, imagine it’s the World Cup and powerhouse Spain is the favourite to win the whole championship. However, in a match against the USA (who are the clear underdog), Spain loses by one goal due to a bad penalty call.
Now ask yourself, would you want to be the next team to face Spain after an outcome like that? The answer is an overwhelming no — no you would not. Why? Because Spain would be on a warpath to win.
The theory is that a squad will demonstrate a clear improvement in performance if they’ve recently lost unexpectedly, were beaten badly, or lost in the waning minutes of a game.
This football betting strategy is based on the notion that certain set-backs will boost performance in the next match for two reasons.
Firstly, they’re more determined to win. Secondly, they’ll analyse the match with a fine tooth comb to find their shortcomings — and focus on making sure they don’t make the same mistakes again.
Not every team is sure to bounce back after a disappointing match so it’s important to understand which teams act in this way and which continue to fail after losses. By doing so you’ll be more confident in a team’s ability (or lack thereof) to redeem themselves in their next match.
6. Double Chance Football Systems
Like the name suggests, by following this football betting strategy, the bettor effectively doubles their odds of winning, by placing one bet on multiple outcomes. This simple technique is favoured by conservative bettors who are focused on mitigating their risk.
There are three possible outcomes of a football match: home team win, away team win, or draw. When placing a double chance bet, the bettor gets to pick two of the three possible outcomes of the football match — reducing their assumed risk to only 33%.
Double chance bets typically don’t offer the highest payouts, but that’s OK because you aren’t taking as big of a gamble. If you follow a double chance football betting strategy without wavering, you can be assured it will pay off in the long run.
Double chance football systems are perfect for beginners just learning to navigate the world of online sportsbooks. By starting off with a double chance method, you don’t have to worry about assuming a tonne of risk. Eventually you’ll graduate to moneyline bets where you only pick one outcome, with more attractive payouts.
Learning how to bet on soccer can feel a bit overwhelming at first. A double chance football betting strategy will help you learn the ropes while limiting your growing pains.
With an incredible array of betting options, all easily accessible through our free mobile betting app, it’s never been simpler to get in on the action with Parimatch.
Study the strategies that have been proven to be successful in 2020 and hone in on the one that is best catered to your risk profile. By doing so, you will become a profitable bettor in no time.
Tweak your football systems as necessary and once you’re confident, start locking in your winning football bets!
Ready to place bets on football using these killer football betting strategies?