Though betting seems to be all about luck for many, successful punters confirm that their bets are based on knowledge, experience, and various strategies. The combination of all these factors allows them to make profitable bets that can be a good source of additional income.
One of such betting strategies is betting against the public, and in this post, we’ll take a closer look at its benefits. Betting against the public is a superb solution allowing you to win more, but you have to remember that it doesn’t always work.
What Is Betting Against the Public?
To put it simply, betting against the public means betting on the side that gets the least amount of support. In other words, you make your bets against the opinion of the majority of bettors. When you see that there’s a one-sided bet (people mostly support only one team or player), it means that you can try your luck and bet on the opposite player. In such a scenario, you can win more, but the risks are also higher.
The thing is that the public is not always right. Those who prefer betting against the public do believe that the majority of bettors have wrong predictions. A punter analyzes the potential of a team or player, considers a wide array of other factors that can make a dent in the course of the game, and after that, places their bets.
Here are some key terms related to betting against the public:
Fading the public is another term that is used to explain betting against the general public.
Casual bettors are usually called squarers. Simply put, squares are all novice bettors, people that bet casually and don’t do this professionally.
The term “sharps” means professional bettors that make their bets regularly and earn money on betting.
This term means a bet or the money you place on a bet. To have action means you have placed a bet on this game and you are really interested in the outcome.
It’s a team that has more chances to win the game. According to the odds, this team is expected to win.
This term refers to a team or player who is expected to lose the game.
How Does Betting Against the Public Work?
Let’s delve into the details of this process and try to learn how it works. It goes without saying that every bet has two possible outcomes. They are as follows:
- Win or lose the game?
- More than 48.5 points, yes or no?
- Over time, yes or no?
- A red card, yes or no?
In fact, every betting platform offers numerous bets in absolutely every sport. But if you see that one side of the bet has more actions, it shows the public attitude. This means that people mostly support this particular team or player, but if you think (your intuition suggests) that they are wrong, you can bet on the opposite outcome of the game.
However, sportsbooks are interested in having an equal amount of action on both bets. That’s why when they see that people wager on one side mostly, they can adjust the lines and odds to make them more engaging. This called reverse line movement and you can learn how to make the best of it.
Factors That Influence Public Opinion
Why do people support one team or player more than the other one? What can put a crimp in their decision? In fact, public attitude is influenced by a wide array of factors. You have to consider them all before placing your bets.
The reputation of a team
Before wagering on this or that team or player, you have to spend some time learning its success story. The better reputation of a team, the higher the odds. Imagine a match between Real Madrid and Shakhtar Donetsk. People would be likely to bet on Real Madrid because this football club has a much better reputation. However, in an actual game that took place in October 2020, Shakhtar Donetsk won and those who placed their bets against the public and supported this team earned a good profit!
The media narrative
The media can also influence public opinion. If they are supporting only one team, people will most likely respect their feedback. It is clear that people are usually influenced by the main media narrative. However, professional bettors used to analyze everything before placing their bets and don’t always follow the recommendations of the media.
It’s another factor that can undoubtedly affect public opinion. In such sports as baseball, football, or basketball, home advantage is a very important factor that can make fans support a home team. However, if you want to make only winning bets, you have to do the research before each game and find out more about the success story of this particular team. Some teams perform much better at home whereas others don’t.
The best players
Mostly, the outcome of the game depends on the professionalism of some players. Absolutely each team has some star players that are very important in determining how the public bets. The best players can have an impact on the course of the game and sometimes, the success of this or that team depends on a star player.
Is It Profitable to Bet Against The Public?
When it comes to analyzing all the betting strategies, fading the public is the easiest one. You only need to check the decimal odds, find where the public money is on, and wager on a different team. That’s all! Now you have to wait for the championship and see who the winner is. But is it really profitable?
In fact, this strategy will continue to be popular and successful to some degree. Let’s look at how sportsbooks are making their money. If the general public bet always wins, bookmakers couldn’t stay in this business. The general public doesn’t always win! The thing is that public betting is influenced by bias that enables sportsbooks to manipulate the line as they like. As a result, they can easily earn money on the recency bias and the gut feeling of the public.
Examples of Wagering Against the Public
Let’s analyze some examples to make sure that fading the public is a superb opportunity to make a profitable bet!
Betting on the underdog to win the contest
It’s the simplest example that enables you to learn more about how it works. Let it be the contest between two baseball teams — Houston Astros and Cincinnati Reds. An average casual bettor, who doesn’t make bets regularly, knows that the star player Edwin Encarnacion plays for the Cincinnati Reds. This information is enough for him; he is expected to wager on Cincinnati. However, a successful bettor also pays attention to the fact that Edwin hasn’t been producing well during the previous games.
Many people do the same as a casual bettor. They only pay heed to the name of the leading player but they don’t monitor the history of wins and losses and don’t know anything about the player’s injuries, etc. Therefore, the majority of casual bettors wager on a favorite player and their choice undoubtedly influences the odds.
That’s why more experienced and professional bettors are fading the public in this case and winning!
Wager on the favorite team not to cover the spread
Unfortunately, when it comes to betting on the road favorite, the public usually doesn’t pay enough attention to home advantage. Casual bettors usually think that a strong reputation of a team is enough to wager on it.
For example, let’s take a contest between the Golden State Warriors and the Boston Celtics. The first team is playing on the road. In this case, the majority of casual bettors are more likely to support the Warriors only because of the big name, the best players, and a few successful games. However, they don’t consider the home advantage factor. Most casual bettors only hear the name of the team and that’s enough for them! In this case, we can see that the public position has created an unreal point spread.
What Do Bookmakers Think About Betting Against the Public?
Casual fans consider that it is of prime importance for sportsbooks to have equal bets on both sides of the match. But in fact, they also figured out a way to earn money out of such bets. To get profit, bookmakers usually adjust the lines to catch the interest of the public and when they do this, the sharps start wagering on the opposite.
As we have already mentioned, the public prefers home favorites in most contests. Therefore, the odds of both types of bets are very tempting.
What about the sharps? They love betting on underdogs. In some instances, when sportsbooks know more than the public, they may make some changes to the odds for the other side. In doing so, they try to attract more action and after the game ends, they will collect the profit. Therefore, if you’ve noticed a suspicious line movement, think twice; learn more about this case before depositing money.
Overall, fading the public is a good betting strategy that allows you to make a scoop! However, it doesn’t guarantee that you will win every time. To be a successful bettor, you need to rely more on facts than your intuition.
Besides, you should also deal with reputable betting platforms. In such a scenario, you can rest assured that you’ll get a superb betting experience and quick payouts. Parimatch is one of such websites in Tanzania, where you can wager on your favorite team or player. It’s a time-proven betting platform that offers quick payouts and minimal deposits. On top of that, there’s a powerful betting app that can be downloaded from our website. A mobile betting application offers more opportunities to gamblers and enables them to bet on the go! So, develop your winning betting strategies, learn more about each team, and place your bets right away!