Late goals betting is one of the many betting strategies. A bet that keeps you on the edge of your seat right until the end of the game, late goal wagering is a chance for punters to place winning bets in the final leg of the game.
While it may seem like this is difficult to determine, our expert gambling team at Parimatch has put together this comprehensive guide to give you a vast wealth of tips on placing late goal wagers successfully. Explaining the meaning of late goal wagering, this article will give you a step-by-step guide to how you can place bets at Parimatch, along with advice on how to leverage statistics. We will also give you the advantages and disadvantages of late goal betting alongside tips on how to boost your potential profit margin.
For those who are new to online betting, Parimatch is the best of most online bookmakers and the ideal platform to get started. We’ve also got a mobile app that is super simple to use.
Contents
What Are Late Goals Betting?
Bet on late goals is a practice of betting on goals that are scored late in the game. A particularly popular betting strategy for live betting, late goals betting can really pay off if you predict correctly.
But what is considered a late goal? If you are betting on late goals, you are betting on goals that happen in the closing leg of the match. In soccer, for example, goals classed as “late goals” are scored after the 75th minute. As there are 90 minutes in a football game, late goals are those goals that are scored in the last 15 minutes of the match. But be careful of matches where the score remains goalless, and you need one goal to get paid.
Despite the fact that a late goal might seem little flukey, late goals are actually far more common than most people realize. In fact, when we consider soccer statistics, data from the English Premier League shows that 20% of all goals are late goals. There are good reasons for this. For example, often, a team may get complacent with defense if they think they have a runaway lead. Another reason that late goals are so common is that teams get tired toward the end of a game, especially underdogs. Late goals are also often scored in big-cup games when a team will get knocked out with a loss. But open and attractive football doesn’t necessarily mean that it will be many goals scored. Crowds also frequently see late goals with teams that have historical rivalries between them.
There are a whole wealth of reasons that late goals occur. What’s important to know is that they are quite common and can result in good wins for punters if they bet right.
So how do you employ the late goals betting strategy? While live betting on a game, you can see such betting options as
- To win
- 3-way betting
- Total goals (both teams)
- Total goals by team
- Both teams to score
- Odd/even
- Odd/even by team
- Correct score
- Goals (score) exactly
- Goals (score) exactly by the team, and more
Correctly predicting whether there will be late goals and who will score them lets you place a winning bet on one of these markets closer to the end of the match. You can see high odds when the outcome is less possible, while odds go down when some outcomes become more and more likely, you might still want to risk and bet on an unlikely outcome. Our guide is here to help you decide whether you should rely on last-minute goals or not.
Late Goals Betting Strategy
While late goals happen quite frequently, especially in the bigger and more popular leagues, there are some betting strategies that you should employ when you consider betting on late goals for a European competition match. Always remember to do your homework, as the statistics on late goals and points vary depending on the sport, the event, and the teams playing.
Here are a couple of strategies that Parimatch advocates when considering betting on late goals.
Late Goal Strategy
Late goal strategy is something you employ in the course of live betting. The odds will change depending on what is happening with the game when you are betting live, unlike pre-match bets, where the pre-match odds are constant, which makes late goal strategies very appealing.
If you want a strategy for picking the best matches for late goal wagering, here are our tips. Firstly, you should check the current match stats, and don’t pick matches where a draw would suit both teams. Point sharing is sometimes a win for teams that need a few extra points here and there. In these cases, these teams will be ok finishing on a draw. If it gets toward the 75th minute of a soccer match and the scoreline is a draw, consider whether both teams would benefit from a draw. If the answer is yes, then there is unlikely to be a goal in the late stages of the game.
On the other hand, if two teams are drawing at the 75th minute and a draw doesn’t suit them, this is your ideal match to bet on. Take the FA Cup, for example. A draw isn’t really an option, as it is a knock-out competition (especially if teams are already playing a replay). In this scenario, teams would rather it didn’t go to extra time or penalties. In these circumstances, you will likely see a stronger offensive push in the last 15 minutes to ensure the final outcome isn’t a draw (or doesn’t go to penalties). This is the perfect time to place a live late-goal bet, as the more offensive teams get, the more their defense slips. This makes it more likely for teams both to score and to concede goals.
Another scenario where it is a good idea to place a live late goals bet is if the underdog is winning by one goal. If the underdog is a goal ahead, the favorite team will start to put pressure on late in the game. As the favorites are inherently better than the underdog team, this makes them more likely to score in the last leg. Equally, as noted above, as the focus will be on offense, the defense often slips a little. Along with tiredness from the game, this can lead to a higher chance of conceding a winning goal.
Other instances where late betting strategies work well are if one team looks particularly tired. You will see this often in tournaments like the FA Cup where very low-level teams are pitched against high-level PL squads. These local-level teams tend to have far less stamina and let in a high number of goal scored once the fatigue sets in toward the end of the match.
Late goals are also a high possibility if a team is down to ten men. If a red card sends a player off, the opposing side has a great chance to score goals more easily. Ten men get tired quicker as they have to cover the 11th man’s job. This often leads to late goals slipping into the net.
What Do the Stats Say About Last-Minute Goals?
When you are considering placing late goal wagers on Parimatch, it is worth checking out the late goals stats. While yes, the push from a favorite might be the thing that incites a last-minute goal, some teams and players are far more likely to do this than others. Pay attention to the statistics of the sport you are planning to bet on.
You need to consider teams that have scored late goals in a high number of games. Also, consider teams that have conceded late goals in a high number of games. These teams are most likely to either score or let in a goal in the last 15 minutes. Not only that, you want to consider those statistics both home and away as teams concede and score differently when in their home ground.
Let’s take soccer as an example. When we consider the PL, the teams that have scored late goals in the most games this season are Manchester City (13 goals), Liverpool (11 goals), Crystal Palace (10 goals), Leicester City (10 goals), and Wolverhampton Wanderers (10 goals). The teams that have conceded late goals in the most matches are Chelsea and Norwich, with 10 games each.
Considering these late goals stats, in the upcoming Premier League match between Wolves and Norwich, it is highly likely that there will be a late goal in the last 15 minutes.
Equally, Norwich has conceded the majority of their late goals at home, whereas Liverpool has scored the majority of their late goals away. That means in the upcoming Premier League face-off between Norwich and Liverpool, with Norwich at home, there is likely to be a late goal.
All this said it is important to understand that the action on an actual day can considerably alter the chances of a late goal occurring. That’s why it’s worth closely monitoring the game. Take the statistics into account to choose which match is worth considering for a late-goal bet, but try and place it once you get a feel for what is happening on the day.
What To Avoid When Betting on Late Goals
Betting on late goals can be a super fun way to keep the action alive right to the very last second of the game. That said, there are some key rules to prevent you from making some terrible mistakes when it comes to betting on late goals. Our betting experts advise our users to avoid all the wrong reasons which force them to make these trivial errors, as they can ruin a late-goal bet for you. Here are some of the common problems, especially when betting on late goals in soccer.
- Avoid Poor Weather Matches
Bad weather can affect goal-scoring throughout the whole game. Rain can be a big problem as it tears up the pitch and causes players to slip over. Snow is an even worse problem for football strikers, as is an icy pitch. Consider this, and don’t rely on late goals if the weather is unfavorable.
- Avoid Goalless Matches
While it may seem that a goalless draw at the 75th minute would spur on the favorite to get a goal in the net, this isn’t true. There is usually a reason that a match has got all the way to the last 15 minutes without a goal. This could be because the teams are too evenly matched, the players aren’t fit enough to beat each other, both teams are too tired, or they’re simply isn’t have the will to push for a win (usually as a draw will do on the points front). If the match is nil-nil at the 75th minute, don’t hope for a late goal as you bet.
- Avoid Friendly Teams
Rivalry makes teams score goals. A derby is far more likely to end in a late goal than matches where the teams like each other. You’ll find much more of this friendly behavior in international competitions, such as the UEFA Cup, where players may have transferred teams. You will also see this softness when good strikers are playing against teams they used to play for. In these scenarios, don’t be surprised if the match ends without a late goal.
Pros and Cons of Late Goal Betting
As with all betting strategies, there are advantages and disadvantages to late-goal betting. As late goal betting is a strategy for live betting, it can be quite action-filled and excitingly risky. This has its pros and cons, which we have outlined for you here.
Benefits of Late Goals Betting
- Keeps You Engaged Until the End
One of the more exciting types of betting, late goals betting, really keeps you engaged in the match until the very end. From the beginning, you will need to analyze the gameplay and how the match is faring to understand whether you should place a bet hoping for a late goal. Then, if you choose to place such a bet, you are engaged until the 90th minute, willing a goal to be scored!
- The Chances are High
As mentioned above, you have about a one in five chance of this bet paying out for you when it comes to soccer. In the Premier League, 20% of all goals happen after the 75th minute so it is a pretty good strategy to follow.
- Gives You Time to Think About the Game
Where many bets ask punters to consider stats beforehand, late goals bets have a lot to do with what is happening in the game. If you see a sudden weather change, a particularly inflammatory decision from the referee, or a push from the favorite to score, you can make a decision on whether to bet or not based on what’s occurring in front of you.
Drawbacks of Late Goals Betting
- You Need to Watch the Game
There are lots of bet types that you can place long before the game start. So, if you want to “bet and forget”, late goals betting isn’t the ideal strategy because here you’ll need a well-founded analysis. Bettors that are successful with this approach tend to place their bets live after having watched the action firsthand.
Should You Bet on Late Goals?
Betting on late goals adds value to your game as it keeps you engaged until the very end. If you know you want to place late goals bet, you keep a keen eye on the game for the entire match. Not only does this extra attentiveness make the game far more interesting, but it also gives you a more acute sense of how those last 15 minutes might turn out.
In this sense, while no bet is a sure thing, late goals bets do have key features which can help you to make money from them. If you know about the two teams playing and their drive to win, you will have a clearer picture of how aggressive the game will be and how many goals it can be scored. It can also give you stronger direction when you come to placing late goals bets. If you know the two teams are battling it out to be at the top of the league, the score is 1-1 in the 70th minute, and a draw simply won’t do, you know that a late goal is probable.
Be aware that late goals betting is mainly a style of gambling placed on football. You will be hard-pressed to find statistics for other sports as it tends to be a soccer bet.
Can You Make Money from Late Goals Bets?
Like all bets, you can make money if you win. However, as late in the game, the outcome becomes obvious, and the odds for the likely ending tend to be low. Still, combining all your insights, and all these factors, you can often place a risky but profitable bet.
Learn About Other Bet Types at Parimatch
In this article, we’ve explored the topic of late goals betting, but the list of all available bet types at Parimatch goes far beyond. Here are a few popular examples:
- Half-time/full-time
- Handicap
- 1Ă—2 (3-way)
- Moneyline (to win)
- Total (over/under)
- Both teams to score
- Double chance
- Draw
- No draw
- Odd/even
- Correct score
Summary
Late goals betting is a betting strategy that tends to be reserved for football. For those on the edge of their seat in a soccer match, late goals betting can add a little spice to the last minutes of a game. With a one-in-five chance of a late goal (in the Premier League), soccer late goals bets have a relatively good chance of paying out.
If you are looking to place a live soccer bet and take advantage of the late goals, Parimatch is the best of the existing betting sites to do it. Explore our variety of football bet options and place your wagers today.
FAQ
What is the most profitable betting strategy?
You must integrate different strategies to ensure you win the most profitable wins. The most important strategy for any betting is first going in with detailed knowledge of the game and teams involved. Further, don’t be too greedy – over-gambling can eventually run your pockets dry.
What is the best betting strategy in football?
Like any other sport, the best betting strategy in football is first to have in-depth knowledge of the game and the teams involved. Furthermore, you need to know how to be technical with your betting. You can integrate various betting strategies, including double bet or double chance betting.
How do you always win in long-run betting?
Set a bankroll with the amount you are comfortable losing and stick to it. You can also incorporate betting approaches such as handicaps, parlays, or other betting markets.
